Champion Homes, Inc. logo SKY - Champion Homes, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $95.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $102.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $93.00
CONSENSUS: $95.67
UPSIDE: 15.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.3% above fair value
Current Price $82.85
Bear Case $64.02 22.7% downside ($64.02 - $82.85) / $82.85 = -22.7% $3.65 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $79.41 4.2% downside ($79.41 - $82.85) / $82.85 = -4.2% $3.65 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $94.79 14.4% upside ($94.79 - $82.85) / $82.85 = 14.4% $3.65 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.65$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.65)

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.67 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.41 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 3.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing