Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. logo SKWD - Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $66.00
CONSENSUS: $70.60
UPSIDE: 48.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.7% below fair value
Current Price $47.45
Bear Case $72.05 51.8% upside ($72.05 - $47.45) / $47.45 = 51.8% ROTCE 16.2% → 3.79x TBV
Fair Value $76.11 60.4% upside ($76.11 - $47.45) / $47.45 = 60.4% ROTCE 21.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $76.11 60.4% upside ($76.11 - $47.45) / $47.45 = 60.4% ROTCE 24.9% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

21.6%
7.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (21.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.45x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.60 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.11 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly