Tanger Inc. logo SKT - Tanger Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $42.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $40.50
CONSENSUS: $40.17
UPSIDE: 5.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.9% above fair value
Current Price $38.05
Bear Case $28.20 25.9% downside ($28.20 - $38.05) / $38.05 = -25.9% $2.31 FFO × 12x
Fair Value $35.26 7.3% downside ($35.26 - $38.05) / $38.05 = -7.3% $2.31 FFO × 15x
Bull Case $42.31 11.2% upside ($42.31 - $38.05) / $38.05 = 11.2% $2.31 FFO × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

15.2x
2.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.31) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.31 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $35.26 per share. Dividend yield: 3.2%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $40.17
Analyst Range $37.00 – $42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify