Tanger Inc. logo SKT - Tanger Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $42.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.14
UPSIDE: 14.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.5% below fair value
Current Price $35.08
Bear Case $28.20 19.6% downside ($28.20 - $35.08) / $35.08 = -19.6% $2.31 FFO × 12x
Fair Value $35.26 0.5% upside ($35.26 - $35.08) / $35.08 = 0.5% $2.31 FFO × 15x
Bull Case $42.31 20.6% upside ($42.31 - $35.08) / $35.08 = 20.6% $2.31 FFO × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

15.2x
2.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.31) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.31 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $35.26 per share. Dividend yield: 3.4%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $40.14
Analyst Range $37.00 – $42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify