AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag SIRI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SIRI is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value SIRI?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from SIRI's most recent reported fundamentals.

SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $27.80 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 26.1% above fair value

Current Price $30.75

Bear Case $13.43 56.3% downside ($13.43 - $30.75) / $30.75 = -56.3% EBITDA $2B × 6.6x − $10B debt

Fair Value $24.39 20.7% downside ($24.39 - $30.75) / $30.75 = -20.7% EBITDA $2B × 8.2x − $10B debt

Bull Case $35.35 15.0% upside ($35.35 - $30.75) / $30.75 = 15.0% EBITDA $2B × 9.9x − $10B debt

Adjust Assumptions

EV/EBITDA Multiple

8.2x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (8.2x) vs. 4.6× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 9.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.80 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 4.6x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.

ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.

Key Risks

Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable