AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Sirius XM Holdings Inc. as a Leveraged Infrastructure business and values it using EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag SIRI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for SIRI comes from a EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Leveraged Infrastructure classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value SIRI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. SIRI was classified as Leveraged Infrastructure and is valued using EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple, built from SIRI's most recent reported fundamentals.

SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $34.43 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 14.9% above fair value

Current Price $26.31

Bear Case $12.62 52.0% downside ($12.62 - $26.31) / $26.31 = -52.0% EBITDA $2B × 6.6x − $10B debt

Fair Value $22.90 13.0% downside ($22.90 - $26.31) / $26.31 = -13.0% EBITDA $2B × 8.2x − $10B debt

Bull Case $33.18 26.1% upside ($33.18 - $26.31) / $26.31 = 26.1% EBITDA $2B × 9.9x − $10B debt

Adjust Assumptions

EV/EBITDA Multiple

8.2x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (8.2x) vs. 4.6× leverage

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 8.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At 8.2x EV/EBITDA on $2B EBITDA, enterprise value is $17B. After subtracting $10B net debt, equity value is $22.90 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $34.43

Analyst Range $28.00 – $45.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 33%

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 4.6x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.

ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $34.43 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable