SIGA Technologies, Inc. logo SIGA - SIGA Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 84.5% below fair value
Current Price $3.44
Bear Case $14.27 314.9% upside ($14.27 - $3.44) / $3.44 = 314.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $22.14 543.6% upside ($22.14 - $3.44) / $3.44 = 543.6% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $31.26 808.8% upside ($31.26 - $3.44) / $3.44 = 808.8% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 2.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -25.0% vs our 16.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $22.14 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions