Signet Jewelers Limited logo SIG - Signet Jewelers Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $121.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $114.50
CONSENSUS: $121.83
UPSIDE: 13.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.2% above fair value
Current Price $107.43
Bear Case $84.96 20.9% downside ($84.96 - $107.43) / $107.43 = -20.9% $7.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $106.20 1.1% downside ($106.20 - $107.43) / $107.43 = -1.1% $7.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $127.44 18.6% upside ($127.44 - $107.43) / $107.43 = 18.6% $7.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
7.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.08, the base-case value is $106.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $121.83
Analyst Range $100.00 – $175.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples