Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. logo SHO - Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 14
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.50
CONSENSUS: $10.50
DOWNSIDE: 1.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.4% below fair value
Current Price $10.62
Bear Case $11.61 9.4% upside ($11.61 - $10.62) / $10.62 = 9.4% $0.85 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $14.04 32.2% upside ($14.04 - $10.62) / $10.62 = 32.2% $0.85 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $16.48 55.1% upside ($16.48 - $10.62) / $10.62 = 55.1% $0.85 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
0.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.85) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.04 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.71 (56% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify