Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. logo SHO - Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 13
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $13.00
CONSENSUS: $13.00
UPSIDE: 15.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.9% below fair value
Current Price $11.29
Bear Case $12.59 11.6% upside ($12.59 - $11.29) / $11.29 = 11.6% $0.85 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $15.22 34.9% upside ($15.22 - $11.29) / $11.29 = 34.9% $0.85 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $17.86 58.2% upside ($17.86 - $11.29) / $11.29 = 58.2% $0.85 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
0.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.85) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.85 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $15.22 per share. Dividend yield: 3.2%. DDM cross-check: $6.71.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $13.00
Analyst Range $13.00 – $13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 17%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.71 (56% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify