Shenandoah Telecommunications Company logo SHEN - Shenandoah Telecommunications Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 154.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 66.9% above fair value
Current Price $10.63
Bear Case $3.87 63.5% downside ($3.87 - $10.63) / $10.63 = -63.5% EBITDA $0B × 7.2x − $1B debt
Fair Value $6.37 40.1% downside ($6.37 - $10.63) / $10.63 = -40.1% EBITDA $0B × 8.4x − $1B debt
Bull Case $8.87 16.6% downside ($8.87 - $10.63) / $10.63 = -16.6% EBITDA $0B × 9.6x − $1B debt

Adjust Assumptions

8.4x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (8.4x) vs. 5.3× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 10.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At 8.4x EV/EBITDA on $0B EBITDA, enterprise value is $1B. After subtracting $1B net debt, equity value is $6.37 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $27.00
Analyst Range $25.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 76%

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 5.3x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable