Sotera Health Company logo SHC - Sotera Health Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.00
UPSIDE: 0.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 366.7% above fair value
Current Price $18.90
Bear Case $3.24 82.9% downside ($3.24 - $18.90) / $18.90 = -82.9% $0.27 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $4.05 78.6% downside ($4.05 - $18.90) / $18.90 = -78.6% $0.27 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $4.86 74.3% downside ($4.86 - $18.90) / $18.90 = -74.3% $0.27 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 70.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.27, the base-case value is $4.05 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $19.00
Analyst Range $18.00 – $20.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 79%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples