Sotera Health Company logo SHC - Sotera Health Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.00
UPSIDE: 9.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 126.6% above fair value
Current Price $17.40
Bear Case $6.14 64.7% downside ($6.14 - $17.40) / $17.40 = -64.7% $0.32 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $7.68 55.9% downside ($7.68 - $17.40) / $17.40 = -55.9% $0.32 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $9.22 47.0% downside ($9.22 - $17.40) / $17.40 = -47.0% $0.32 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.32$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 53.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.68 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples