Shore Bancshares, Inc. logo SHBI - Shore Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.50
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $25.75
CONSENSUS: $25.75
UPSIDE: 12.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.7% below fair value
Current Price $22.85
Bear Case $15.46 32.4% downside ($15.46 - $22.85) / $22.85 = -32.4% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.04x TBV
Fair Value $24.75 8.3% upside ($24.75 - $22.85) / $22.85 = 8.3% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.66x TBV
Bull Case $30.32 32.7% upside ($30.32 - $22.85) / $22.85 = 32.7% ROTCE 13.8% → 2.04x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.53x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.0% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.66x on $14.89 tangible book, implying $24.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $7.35.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $25.75
Analyst Range $25.00 – $26.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $7.35 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly