Shore Bancshares, Inc. logo SHBI - Shore Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
UPSIDE: 8.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.0% below fair value
Current Price $20.22
Bear Case $15.05 25.6% downside ($15.05 - $20.22) / $20.22 = -25.6% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.03x TBV
Fair Value $24.08 19.1% upside ($24.08 - $20.22) / $20.22 = 19.1% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.66x TBV
Bull Case $29.50 45.9% upside ($29.50 - $20.22) / $20.22 = 45.9% ROTCE 13.8% → 2.03x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.36x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.08 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.30 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly