Shore Bancshares, Inc. logo SHBI - Shore Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.50
LOW: $26.50
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $26.50
UPSIDE: 12.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.6% below fair value
Current Price $23.63
Bear Case $15.80 33.1% downside ($15.80 - $23.63) / $23.63 = -33.1% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.06x TBV
Fair Value $25.29 7.0% upside ($25.29 - $23.63) / $23.63 = 7.0% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.70x TBV
Bull Case $30.99 31.1% upside ($30.99 - $23.63) / $23.63 = 31.1% ROTCE 13.8% → 2.09x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.59x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.0% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.70x on $14.85 tangible book, implying $25.29 per share. DDM cross-check: $7.47.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $26.50
Analyst Range $26.50 – $26.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.47 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly