Smithfield Foods, Inc. logo SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $31.50
CONSENSUS: $31.50
UPSIDE: 43.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.6% below fair value
Current Price $21.94
Bear Case $35.14 60.2% upside ($35.14 - $21.94) / $21.94 = 60.2% $2.51 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $42.67 94.5% upside ($42.67 - $21.94) / $21.94 = 94.5% $2.51 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $50.20 128.8% upside ($50.20 - $21.94) / $21.94 = 128.8% $2.51 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.51, the base-case value is $42.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples