Smithfield Foods, Inc. logo SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $27.33
UPSIDE: 50.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.3% below fair value
Current Price $18.22
Bear Case $35.14 92.9% upside ($35.14 - $18.22) / $18.22 = 92.9% $2.51 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $42.67 134.2% upside ($42.67 - $18.22) / $18.22 = 134.2% $2.51 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $50.20 175.5% upside ($50.20 - $18.22) / $18.22 = 175.5% $2.51 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.51, the base-case value is $42.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples