ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. logo SFBS - ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $46.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.50
CONSENSUS: $45.50
UPSIDE: 18.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.6% above fair value
Current Price $38.41
Bear Case $24.75 35.6% downside ($24.75 - $38.41) / $38.41 = -35.6% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.38x TBV
Fair Value $35.36 7.9% downside ($35.36 - $38.41) / $38.41 = -7.9% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.09x TBV
Bull Case $45.97 19.7% upside ($45.97 - $38.41) / $38.41 = 19.7% ROTCE 17.3% → 2.52x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.29x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.09x on $16.80 tangible book, implying $35.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $87.66.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $45.50
Analyst Range $45.00 – $46.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $87.66 (148% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly