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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $123.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $124.00
CONSENSUS: $123.00
UPSIDE: 17.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.8% above fair value
Current Price $104.72
Bear Case $72.69 30.6% downside ($72.69 - $104.72) / $104.72 = -30.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.86x TBV
Fair Value $103.85 0.8% downside ($103.85 - $104.72) / $104.72 = -0.8% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $135.00 28.9% upside ($135.00 - $104.72) / $104.72 = 28.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

48.0%
9.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (48.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 8.43x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.85 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly