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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $82.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $100.67
UPSIDE: 15.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.3% below fair value
Current Price $87.14
Bear Case $69.57 20.2% downside ($69.57 - $87.14) / $87.14 = -20.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.82x TBV
Fair Value $99.38 14.1% upside ($99.38 - $87.14) / $87.14 = 14.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $129.20 48.3% upside ($129.20 - $87.14) / $87.14 = 48.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

48.0%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (48.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.03x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.67 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly