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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 177.0% above fair value
Current Price $3922.63
Bear Case $1,064.73 72.9% downside ($1,064.73 - $3,922.63) / $3,922.63 = -72.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $1,415.89 63.9% downside ($1,415.89 - $3,922.63) / $3,922.63 = -63.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,729.97 55.9% downside ($1,729.97 - $3,922.63) / $3,922.63 = -55.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 37.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 17.2% vs our 6.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1415.89 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions