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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.8% below fair value
Current Price $1.49
Bear Case $1.34 9.7% downside ($1.34 - $1.49) / $1.49 = -9.7% $0.09 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $1.63 9.6% upside ($1.63 - $1.49) / $1.49 = 9.6% $0.09 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $1.92 29.0% upside ($1.92 - $1.49) / $1.49 = 29.0% $0.09 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.5x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.63 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 113% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from MYR into USD using USDMYR at 0.2447 USD per MYR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples