SandRidge Energy, Inc. logo SD - SandRidge Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 12
SELL 9
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.7% below fair value
Current Price $15.30
Bear Case $14.83 3.1% downside ($14.83 - $15.30) / $15.30 = -3.1% FCF $55M × 8x
Fair Value $26.23 71.4% upside ($26.23 - $15.30) / $15.30 = 71.4% FCF $78M × 11x
Bull Case $41.43 170.8% upside ($41.43 - $15.30) / $15.30 = 170.8% FCF $101M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $26.23 per share. Range: $14.83 (bear) to $41.43 (bull).

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential