ScanSource, Inc. logo SCSC - ScanSource, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
DOWNSIDE: 30.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.5% above fair value
Current Price $61.97
Bear Case $43.68 29.5% downside ($43.68 - $61.97) / $61.97 = -29.5% $3.64 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $54.60 11.9% downside ($54.60 - $61.97) / $61.97 = -11.9% $3.64 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $65.52 5.7% upside ($65.52 - $61.97) / $61.97 = 5.7% $3.64 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.64, the base-case value is $54.60 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $43.00
Analyst Range $43.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples