Scholastic Corporation logo SCHL - Scholastic Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 73.3% above fair value
Current Price $40.71
Bear Case $18.79 53.8% downside ($18.79 - $40.71) / $40.71 = -53.8% $1.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $23.49 42.3% downside ($23.49 - $40.71) / $40.71 = -42.3% $1.57 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $28.19 30.8% downside ($28.19 - $40.71) / $40.71 = -30.8% $1.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.57, the base-case value is $23.49 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.79.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $40.79 (above our primary estimate by 74%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples