Société Générale S.A. logo SCGLY - Société Générale S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $5.80
LOW: $5.80
MEDIAN: $5.80
CONSENSUS: $5.80
DOWNSIDE: 63.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.3% below fair value
Current Price $15.90
Bear Case $12.29 22.7% downside ($12.29 - $15.90) / $15.90 = -22.7% ROTCE 8.3% → 0.75x TBV
Fair Value $20.21 27.1% upside ($20.21 - $15.90) / $15.90 = 27.1% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.23x TBV
Bull Case $24.95 56.9% upside ($24.95 - $15.90) / $15.90 = 56.9% ROTCE 12.7% → 1.51x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.96x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.23x on $16.48 tangible book, implying $20.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1544 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly