Société Générale S.A. logo SCGLF - Société Générale S.A.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.1% below fair value
Current Price $80.51
Bear Case $66.34 17.6% downside ($66.34 - $80.51) / $80.51 = -17.6% ROTCE 8.6% → 0.81x TBV
Fair Value $107.52 33.5% upside ($107.52 - $80.51) / $80.51 = 33.5% ROTCE 11.5% → 1.30x TBV
Bull Case $132.23 64.2% upside ($132.23 - $80.51) / $80.51 = 64.2% ROTCE 13.2% → 1.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.5%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.98x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.5% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.30x on $82.40 tangible book, implying $107.52 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1544 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly