Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. logo SBRA - Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 16
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $21.20
UPSIDE: 6.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.9% below fair value
Current Price $19.88
Bear Case $18.39 7.5% downside ($18.39 - $19.88) / $19.88 = -7.5% $1.36 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $23.64 18.9% upside ($23.64 - $19.88) / $19.88 = 18.9% $1.36 FFO × 18x
Bull Case $28.90 45.4% upside ($28.90 - $19.88) / $19.88 = 45.4% $1.36 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.36$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.36) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.20 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.64 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify