Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. logo SBRA - Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 16
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.50
UPSIDE: 10.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.6% below fair value
Current Price $20.39
Bear Case $19.02 6.7% downside ($19.02 - $20.39) / $20.39 = -6.7% $1.36 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $24.45 19.9% upside ($24.45 - $20.39) / $20.39 = 19.9% $1.36 FFO × 18x
Bull Case $29.89 46.6% upside ($29.89 - $20.39) / $20.39 = 46.6% $1.36 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.36$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.36) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.36 FFO/share with a 18x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $24.45 per share. Dividend yield: 5.9%. DDM cross-check: $22.36.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $22.50
Analyst Range $21.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify