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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 27
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $233.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $205.00
MEDIAN: $230.00
CONSENSUS: $233.00
UPSIDE: 13.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.6% below fair value
Current Price $205.57
Bear Case $345.77 68.2% upside ($345.77 - $205.57) / $205.57 = 68.2% $14.43 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $424.35 106.4% upside ($424.35 - $205.57) / $205.57 = 106.4% $14.43 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $502.94 144.7% upside ($502.94 - $205.57) / $205.57 = 144.7% $14.43 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
14.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($14.43) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $233.00 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $424.35 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $233.00 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 117% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify