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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 28
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $217.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $238.00
LOW: $205.00
MEDIAN: $212.50
CONSENSUS: $217.67
UPSIDE: 13.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.3% below fair value
Current Price $190.95
Bear Case $412.59 116.1% upside ($412.59 - $190.95) / $190.95 = 116.1% $14.43 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $506.36 165.2% upside ($506.36 - $190.95) / $190.95 = 165.2% $14.43 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $600.13 214.3% upside ($600.13 - $190.95) / $190.95 = 214.3% $14.43 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
14.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($14.43) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $14.43 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $506.36 per share. Dividend yield: 2.5%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (42 analysts) $217.67
Analyst Range $205.00 – $238.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 133%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $217.67 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify