SBA Communications Corporation logo SBAC - SBA Communications Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 28
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $223.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $271.00
LOW: $205.00
MEDIAN: $210.00
CONSENSUS: $223.71
UPSIDE: 23.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.4% below fair value
Current Price $180.71
Bear Case $362.93 100.8% upside ($362.93 - $180.71) / $180.71 = 100.8% $12.69 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $445.41 146.5% upside ($445.41 - $180.71) / $180.71 = 146.5% $12.69 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $527.90 192.1% upside ($527.90 - $180.71) / $180.71 = 192.1% $12.69 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
12.69$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($12.69) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $12.69 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $445.41 per share. Dividend yield: 2.7%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (42 analysts) $223.71
Analyst Range $205.00 – $271.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $223.71 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify