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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $131.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $131.00
CONSENSUS: $131.00
DOWNSIDE: 39.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 225.1% above fair value
Current Price $217.49
Bear Case $53.52 75.4% downside ($53.52 - $217.49) / $217.49 = -75.4% $4.46 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $66.90 69.2% downside ($66.90 - $217.49) / $217.49 = -69.2% $4.46 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $80.28 63.1% downside ($80.28 - $217.49) / $217.49 = -63.1% $4.46 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 48.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.46, the base-case value is $66.90 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $131.00
Analyst Range $62.00 – $200.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 49%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $131.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples