Sanmina Corporation logo SANM - Sanmina Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $200.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $200.00
MEDIAN: $200.00
CONSENSUS: $200.00
DOWNSIDE: 18.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 146.0% above fair value
Current Price $246.44
Bear Case $80.14 67.5% downside ($80.14 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -67.5% $4.46 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $100.18 59.4% downside ($100.18 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -59.4% $4.46 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $120.21 51.2% downside ($120.21 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -51.2% $4.46 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 55.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $200.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.18 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $200.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples