Sonic Automotive, Inc. logo SAH - Sonic Automotive, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $109.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $90.50
CONSENSUS: $90.50
DOWNSIDE: 9.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.6% above fair value
Current Price $100.42
Bear Case $45.04 55.2% downside ($45.04 - $100.42) / $100.42 = -55.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $86.87 13.5% downside ($86.87 - $100.42) / $100.42 = -13.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $125.25 24.7% upside ($125.25 - $100.42) / $100.42 = 24.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 19.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.3% vs our 7.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $86.87 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions