Ryerson Holding Corporation logo RYZ - Ryerson Holding Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.3% below fair value
Current Price $24.51
Bear Case $40.52 65.3% upside ($40.52 - $24.51) / $24.51 = 65.3% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $51.33 109.4% upside ($51.33 - $24.51) / $24.51 = 109.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $60.77 148.0% upside ($60.77 - $24.51) / $24.51 = 148.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 31%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -0.9% vs our 5.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.33 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions