RYAN - Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$42.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$64.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$40.00
CONSENSUS:
$42.00
UPSIDE:
28.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
8.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.53x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.91 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly