Revolve Group, Inc. logo RVLV - Revolve Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $28.43
UPSIDE: 13.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.3% above fair value
Current Price $24.98
Bear Case $19.48 22.1% downside ($19.48 - $24.98) / $24.98 = -22.1% $0.86 × 20x P/E
Fair Value $22.26 10.9% downside ($22.26 - $24.98) / $24.98 = -10.9% $0.86 × 23x P/E
Bull Case $25.04 0.2% upside ($25.04 - $24.98) / $24.98 = 0.2% $0.86 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.7x
0.86$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.43 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.26 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $28.43 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples