RTX - RTX Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$238.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$250.00
LOW:
$215.00
MEDIAN:
$240.00
CONSENSUS:
$238.50
UPSIDE:
12.68%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
3.5$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.50)
Implied Market Multiple
60.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.50 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $77.00 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$238.50
Analyst Range
$215.00 – $250.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Recent profits ($4.96/share) are 42% above the mid-cycle average ($3.50). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
Wall Street's average price target is $238.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing