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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $224.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $240.00
LOW: $204.00
MEDIAN: $227.00
CONSENSUS: $224.89
UPSIDE: 27.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 52.6% above fair value
Current Price $177.01
Bear Case $91.59 48.3% downside ($91.59 - $177.01) / $177.01 = -48.3% $4.20 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $116.01 34.5% downside ($116.01 - $177.01) / $177.01 = -34.5% $4.20 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $140.45 20.7% downside ($140.45 - $177.01) / $177.01 = -20.7% $4.20 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
4.2$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.20)

Implied Market Multiple 42.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $224.89 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.01 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $224.89 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing