Regal Rexnord Corporation logo RRX - Regal Rexnord Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $254.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $286.00
LOW: $230.00
MEDIAN: $254.00
CONSENSUS: $254.50
UPSIDE: 25.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.2% below fair value
Current Price $202.93
Bear Case $178.27 12.2% downside ($178.27 - $202.93) / $202.93 = -12.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $313.31 54.4% upside ($313.31 - $202.93) / $202.93 = 54.4% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $462.95 128.1% upside ($462.95 - $202.93) / $202.93 = 128.1% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 20.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.6% vs our 14.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $254.50 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $313.31 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $254.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions