Regal Rexnord Corporation logo RRX - Regal Rexnord Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $258.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $286.00
LOW: $240.00
MEDIAN: $255.00
CONSENSUS: $258.20
UPSIDE: 59.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.7% below fair value
Current Price $162.29
Bear Case $257.68 58.8% upside ($257.68 - $162.29) / $162.29 = 58.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $424.24 161.4% upside ($424.24 - $162.29) / $162.29 = 161.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $604.35 272.4% upside ($604.35 - $162.29) / $162.29 = 272.4% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.6% vs our 13.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $424.24 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $258.20
Analyst Range $240.00 – $286.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $258.20 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions