Range Resources Corporation logo RRC - Range Resources Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 37
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $46.00
CONSENSUS: $46.86
UPSIDE: 14.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.9% above fair value
Current Price $41.05
Bear Case $7.10 82.7% downside ($7.10 - $41.05) / $41.05 = -82.7% FCF $263M × 8x
Fair Value $24.30 40.8% downside ($24.30 - $41.05) / $41.05 = -40.8% FCF $376M × 11x
Bull Case $47.23 15.1% upside ($47.23 - $41.05) / $41.05 = 15.1% FCF $488M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.86 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.30 per share.

Warnings

If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -91%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.86 (from 62 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential