Range Resources Corporation logo RRC - Range Resources Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 37
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $43.50
CONSENSUS: $43.83
UPSIDE: 13.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.4% above fair value
Current Price $38.75
Bear Case $6.10 84.2% downside ($6.10 - $38.75) / $38.75 = -84.2% FCF $263M × 8x
Fair Value $23.01 40.6% downside ($23.01 - $38.75) / $38.75 = -40.6% FCF $376M × 11x
Bull Case $45.57 17.6% upside ($45.57 - $38.75) / $38.75 = 17.6% FCF $488M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.83 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.01 per share.

Warnings

If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -92%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.83 (from 62 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential