Range Resources Corporation logo RRC - Range Resources Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 37
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.38
UPSIDE: 3.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 167.3% above fair value
Current Price $42.00
Bear Case $5.11 87.8% downside ($5.11 - $42.00) / $42.00 = -87.8% FCF $321M × 8x
Fair Value $15.71 62.6% downside ($15.71 - $42.00) / $42.00 = -62.6% FCF $459M × 11x
Bull Case $29.84 29.0% downside ($29.84 - $42.00) / $42.00 = -29.0% FCF $596M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $15.71 per share. Range: $5.11 (bear) to $29.84 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (62 analysts) $43.38
Analyst Range $39.00 – $52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -88%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $43.38 (from 62 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential