Royalty Pharma plc logo RPRX - Royalty Pharma plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $63.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $57.00
CONSENSUS: $56.67
UPSIDE: 0.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.9% below fair value
Current Price $56.43
Bear Case $65.28 15.7% upside ($65.28 - $56.43) / $56.43 = 15.7% $5.79 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $76.17 35.0% upside ($76.17 - $56.43) / $56.43 = 35.0% $5.79 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $87.05 54.3% upside ($87.05 - $56.43) / $56.43 = 54.3% $5.79 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
5.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.17 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 222%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $29.76 (below our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples