RPM International Inc. logo RPM - RPM International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $129.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $143.00
LOW: $121.00
MEDIAN: $127.50
CONSENSUS: $129.75
UPSIDE: 23.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 60.1% above fair value
Current Price $105.08
Bear Case $50.04 52.4% downside ($50.04 - $105.08) / $105.08 = -52.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $65.62 37.6% downside ($65.62 - $105.08) / $105.08 = -37.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $79.37 24.5% downside ($79.37 - $105.08) / $105.08 = -24.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 31.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.8% vs our 6.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $129.75 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.62 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $129.75 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions