Ross Stores, Inc. logo ROST - Ross Stores, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $259.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $290.00
LOW: $230.00
MEDIAN: $260.00
CONSENSUS: $259.89
UPSIDE: 17.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 43.7% above fair value
Current Price $220.79
Bear Case $125.36 43.2% downside ($125.36 - $220.79) / $220.79 = -43.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $153.69 30.4% downside ($153.69 - $220.79) / $220.79 = -30.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $179.27 18.8% downside ($179.27 - $220.79) / $220.79 = -18.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 34.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.2% vs our 6.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $259.89 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $153.69 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $259.89 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions