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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 389.9% above fair value
Current Price $0.02
Bear Case $0.00 82.9% downside ($0.00 - $0.02) / $0.02 = -82.9% $0.00 × 27x P/E
Fair Value $0.00 79.6% downside ($0.00 - $0.02) / $0.02 = -79.6% $0.00 × 32x P/E
Bull Case $0.00 76.3% downside ($0.00 - $0.02) / $0.02 = -76.3% $0.00 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

32.2x
0.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 158.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.00, the base-case value is $0.00 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples