Rubicon Organics Inc. logo ROMJF - Rubicon Organics Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 271.6% above fair value
Current Price $0.32
Bear Case $0.06 82.1% downside ($0.06 - $0.32) / $0.32 = -82.1% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $0.08 73.1% downside ($0.08 - $0.32) / $0.32 = -73.1% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $0.11 64.1% downside ($0.11 - $0.32) / $0.32 = -64.1% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 27.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 42% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $0.08. Wide scenario range: $0.06–$0.11.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7246 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case