Rollins, Inc. logo ROL - Rollins, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $66.50
CONSENSUS: $63.75
UPSIDE: 19.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.6% above fair value
Current Price $53.46
Bear Case $26.45 50.5% downside ($26.45 - $53.46) / $53.46 = -50.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $38.85 27.3% downside ($38.85 - $53.46) / $53.46 = -27.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $51.59 3.5% downside ($51.59 - $53.46) / $53.46 = -3.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 41.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.75 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.85 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $63.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions