Rollins, Inc. logo ROL - Rollins, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 12
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $67.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $49.00
UPSIDE: 25.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.1% above fair value
Current Price $39.01
Bear Case $23.66 39.4% downside ($23.66 - $39.01) / $39.01 = -39.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $34.50 11.6% downside ($34.50 - $39.01) / $39.01 = -11.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $45.61 16.9% upside ($45.61 - $39.01) / $39.01 = 16.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 31.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.2% vs our 11.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.50 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions