Rogers Corporation logo ROG - Rogers Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $150.00
CONSENSUS: $150.00
UPSIDE: 19.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 172.4% above fair value
Current Price $125.52
Bear Case $36.86 70.6% downside ($36.86 - $125.52) / $125.52 = -70.6% $3.07 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $46.08 63.3% downside ($46.08 - $125.52) / $125.52 = -63.3% $3.07 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $55.30 55.9% downside ($55.30 - $125.52) / $125.52 = -55.9% $3.07 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.07, the base-case value is $46.08 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $150.00
Analyst Range $150.00 – $150.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 69%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples