Rogers Corporation logo ROG - Rogers Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $150.00
CONSENSUS: $150.00
UPSIDE: 11.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 80.7% above fair value
Current Price $135.13
Bear Case $59.82 55.7% downside ($59.82 - $135.13) / $135.13 = -55.7% $3.73 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $74.78 44.7% downside ($74.78 - $135.13) / $135.13 = -44.7% $3.73 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $89.75 33.6% downside ($89.75 - $135.13) / $135.13 = -33.6% $3.73 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.73$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 36.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.78 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples