Gibraltar Industries, Inc. logo ROCK - Gibraltar Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 47.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.0% below fair value
Current Price $37.18
Bear Case $45.29 21.8% upside ($45.29 - $37.18) / $37.18 = 21.8% $3.25 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $58.12 56.3% upside ($58.12 - $37.18) / $37.18 = 56.3% $3.25 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $70.95 90.8% upside ($70.95 - $37.18) / $37.18 = 90.8% $3.25 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.25$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.25)

Implied Market Multiple 11.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.12 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing