Gibraltar Industries, Inc. logo ROCK - Gibraltar Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 19.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.9% below fair value
Current Price $45.85
Bear Case $39.00 14.9% downside ($39.00 - $45.85) / $45.85 = -14.9% $3.25 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $48.75 6.3% upside ($48.75 - $45.85) / $45.85 = 6.3% $3.25 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $58.50 27.6% upside ($58.50 - $45.85) / $45.85 = 27.6% $3.25 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.25$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.25, the base-case value is $48.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $2.89.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $55.00
Analyst Range $55.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $2.89 (below our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples