ROCK - Gibraltar Industries, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$55.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$55.00
LOW:
$55.00
MEDIAN:
$55.00
CONSENSUS:
$55.00
UPSIDE:
19.96%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.25, the base-case value is $48.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $2.89.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$55.00
Analyst Range
$55.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $2.89 (below our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples