Renasant Corporation logo RNST - Renasant Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $48.00
UPSIDE: 16.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.1% below fair value
Current Price $41.09
Bear Case $30.97 24.6% downside ($30.97 - $41.09) / $41.09 = -24.6% ROTCE 5.8% → 0.32x TBV
Fair Value $44.25 7.7% upside ($44.25 - $41.09) / $41.09 = 7.7% ROTCE 7.8% → 0.65x TBV
Bull Case $57.52 40.0% upside ($57.52 - $41.09) / $41.09 = 40.0% ROTCE 8.9% → 0.85x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.61x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 7.8% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.65x on $25.52 tangible book, implying $44.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $48.00
Analyst Range $48.00 – $48.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.8%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.27 (75% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly