Renasant Corporation logo RNST - Renasant Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $41.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $38.80
DOWNSIDE: 5.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.4% below fair value
Current Price $41.00
Bear Case $30.02 26.8% downside ($30.02 - $41.00) / $41.00 = -26.8% ROTCE 5.8% → 0.32x TBV
Fair Value $42.89 4.6% upside ($42.89 - $41.00) / $41.00 = 4.6% ROTCE 7.8% → 0.66x TBV
Bull Case $55.75 36.0% upside ($55.75 - $41.00) / $41.00 = 36.0% ROTCE 8.9% → 0.86x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.62x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.80 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.89 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (7.8%) is below the minimum investors require (9.7%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $10.51 (76% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly