The RMR Group Inc. logo RMR - The RMR Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 64.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.8% below fair value
Current Price $19.46
Bear Case $25.43 30.7% upside ($25.43 - $19.46) / $19.46 = 30.7% $2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $31.79 63.3% upside ($31.79 - $19.46) / $19.46 = 63.3% $2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $38.14 96.0% upside ($38.14 - $19.46) / $19.46 = 96.0% $2.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.3x
2.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.08, the base-case value is $31.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.34.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $32.00
Analyst Range $32.00 – $32.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 1%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 102%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 175% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples