The RMR Group Inc. logo RMR - The RMR Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
UPSIDE: 43.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.9% below fair value
Current Price $18.16
Bear Case $25.43 40.0% upside ($25.43 - $18.16) / $18.16 = 40.0% $2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $31.79 75.0% upside ($31.79 - $18.16) / $18.16 = 75.0% $2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $38.14 110.0% upside ($38.14 - $18.16) / $18.16 = 110.0% $2.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.3x
2.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.08, the base-case value is $31.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $34.48.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $26.00
Analyst Range $26.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 102%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 175% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples