ResMed Inc. logo RMD - ResMed Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 16
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $242.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $275.00
LOW: $220.00
MEDIAN: $232.00
CONSENSUS: $242.00
UPSIDE: 21.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.4% below fair value
Current Price $198.99
Bear Case $195.69 1.7% downside ($195.69 - $198.99) / $198.99 = -1.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $294.42 48.0% upside ($294.42 - $198.99) / $198.99 = 48.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $401.13 101.6% upside ($401.13 - $198.99) / $198.99 = 101.6% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.5% vs our 13.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $242.00 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $294.42 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $242.00 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions