Rambus Inc. logo RMBS - Rambus Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $135.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $172.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $145.00
CONSENSUS: $135.67
DOWNSIDE: 5.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.9% below fair value
Current Price $142.98
Bear Case $85.73 40.0% downside ($85.73 - $142.98) / $142.98 = -40.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $172.01 20.3% upside ($172.01 - $142.98) / $142.98 = 20.3% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $292.48 104.6% upside ($292.48 - $142.98) / $142.98 = 104.6% 32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

25.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (25% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 44.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $135.67 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $172.01 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $135.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions