Rocket Companies, Inc. logo RKT - Rocket Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $22.25
CONSENSUS: $21.63
UPSIDE: 56.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 146.1% above fair value
Current Price $13.79
Bear Case $3.66 73.4% downside ($3.66 - $13.79) / $13.79 = -73.4% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $5.60 59.4% downside ($5.60 - $13.79) / $13.79 = -59.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $7.54 45.3% downside ($7.54 - $13.79) / $13.79 = -45.3% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 397.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.63 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.60 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.63 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case