Rocket Companies, Inc. logo RKT - Rocket Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.50
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.63
UPSIDE: 34.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 2458.0% above fair value
Current Price $13.82
Bear Case $0.43 96.9% downside ($0.43 - $13.82) / $13.82 = -96.9% $0.04 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $0.54 96.1% downside ($0.54 - $13.82) / $13.82 = -96.1% $0.04 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $0.65 95.3% downside ($0.65 - $13.82) / $13.82 = -95.3% $0.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 383.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.04, the base-case value is $0.54 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $18.63
Analyst Range $16.00 – $22.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $18.63 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 43% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples