Raymond James Financial, Inc. logo RJF - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 9
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $169.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $172.00
LOW: $166.00
MEDIAN: $169.00
CONSENSUS: $169.00
UPSIDE: 11.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.4% below fair value
Current Price $151.46
Bear Case $138.36 8.6% downside ($138.36 - $151.46) / $151.46 = -8.6% ROTCE 15.0% → 1.91x TBV
Fair Value $197.66 30.5% upside ($197.66 - $151.46) / $151.46 = 30.5% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.78x TBV
Bull Case $256.97 69.7% upside ($256.97 - $151.46) / $151.46 = 69.7% ROTCE 23.0% → 3.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
9.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (20.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.77x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $169.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $197.66 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly