Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo RIGL - Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $42.00
LOW: $2.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $27.33
DOWNSIDE: 35.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.5% below fair value
Current Price $42.26
Bear Case $63.75 50.9% upside ($63.75 - $42.26) / $42.26 = 50.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $99.35 135.1% upside ($99.35 - $42.26) / $42.26 = 135.1% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $139.65 230.5% upside ($139.65 - $42.26) / $42.26 = 230.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 10.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -0.1% vs our 15.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 351% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions