Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. logo RHP - Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $118.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $131.00
LOW: $109.00
MEDIAN: $118.00
CONSENSUS: $118.67
UPSIDE: 5.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.8% below fair value
Current Price $111.96
Bear Case $137.23 22.6% upside ($137.23 - $111.96) / $111.96 = 22.6% $8.26 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $166.64 48.8% upside ($166.64 - $111.96) / $111.96 = 48.8% $8.26 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $196.05 75.1% upside ($196.05 - $111.96) / $111.96 = 75.1% $8.26 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
8.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.26) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $118.67 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $166.64 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $118.67 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify