Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. logo RHP - Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $133.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $147.00
LOW: $112.00
MEDIAN: $136.00
CONSENSUS: $133.86
UPSIDE: 5.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.3% below fair value
Current Price $127.22
Bear Case $150.40 18.2% upside ($150.40 - $127.22) / $127.22 = 18.2% $8.26 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $182.63 43.5% upside ($182.63 - $127.22) / $127.22 = 43.5% $8.26 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $214.86 68.9% upside ($214.86 - $127.22) / $127.22 = 68.9% $8.26 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
8.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.26) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $8.26 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $182.63 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%. DDM cross-check: $193.29.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $133.86
Analyst Range $112.00 – $147.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $133.86 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify