AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag RGR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for RGR is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value RGR?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from RGR's most recent reported fundamentals.

RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $46.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 60.4% below fair value

Current Price $40.04

Bear Case $83.59 108.8% upside ($83.59 - $40.04) / $40.04 = 108.8% $4.96 × 18x + net cash

Fair Value $101.05 152.4% upside ($101.05 - $40.04) / $40.04 = 152.4% $4.96 × 22x + net cash

Bull Case $118.51 196.0% upside ($118.51 - $40.04) / $40.04 = 196.0% $4.96 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

4.96$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.96)

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 150% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing