Repligen Corporation logo RGEN - Repligen Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 19
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $163.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $160.00
CONSENSUS: $163.14
UPSIDE: 41.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 62.3% above fair value
Current Price $115.06
Bear Case $46.03 60.0% downside ($46.03 - $115.06) / $115.06 = -60.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $70.91 38.4% downside ($70.91 - $115.06) / $115.06 = -38.4% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $98.64 14.3% downside ($98.64 - $115.06) / $115.06 = -14.3% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 92.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $163.14 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.91 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $163.14 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions