Repligen Corporation logo RGEN - Repligen Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 21
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $152.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $160.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $152.50
CONSENSUS: $152.00
UPSIDE: 3.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 116.2% above fair value
Current Price $147.25
Bear Case $44.22 70.0% downside ($44.22 - $147.25) / $147.25 = -70.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $68.12 53.7% downside ($68.12 - $147.25) / $147.25 = -53.7% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $94.77 35.6% downside ($94.77 - $147.25) / $147.25 = -35.6% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 118.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 32.8% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $152.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.12 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $152.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions