Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated logo RGA - Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $273.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $295.00
LOW: $236.00
MEDIAN: $279.00
CONSENSUS: $273.67
UPSIDE: 6.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.6% below fair value
Current Price $255.98
Bear Case $191.21 25.3% downside ($191.21 - $255.98) / $255.98 = -25.3% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.93x TBV
Fair Value $353.43 38.1% upside ($353.43 - $255.98) / $255.98 = 38.1% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.72x TBV
Bull Case $450.76 76.1% upside ($450.76 - $255.98) / $255.98 = 76.1% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.19x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.25x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.72x on $205.38 tangible book, implying $353.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $194.02.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $273.67
Analyst Range $236.00 – $295.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 29%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $194.02 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $273.67 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly