Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated logo RGA - Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $256.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $278.00
LOW: $236.00
MEDIAN: $261.00
CONSENSUS: $256.00
UPSIDE: 10.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.6% below fair value
Current Price $231.16
Bear Case $172.83 25.2% downside ($172.83 - $231.16) / $231.16 = -25.2% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.90x TBV
Fair Value $319.47 38.2% upside ($319.47 - $231.16) / $231.16 = 38.2% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.66x TBV
Bull Case $407.45 76.3% upside ($407.45 - $231.16) / $231.16 = 76.3% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.12x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.13x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $256.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $319.47 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $203.04 (40% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $256.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly