Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated logo RGA - Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $265.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $291.00
LOW: $236.00
MEDIAN: $264.00
CONSENSUS: $265.83
UPSIDE: 7.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% below fair value
Current Price $246.55
Bear Case $187.50 24.0% downside ($187.50 - $246.55) / $246.55 = -24.0% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.91x TBV
Fair Value $346.57 40.6% upside ($346.57 - $246.55) / $246.55 = 40.6% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.69x TBV
Bull Case $442.02 79.3% upside ($442.02 - $246.55) / $246.55 = 79.3% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.15x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.2x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.69x on $205.38 tangible book, implying $346.57 per share. DDM cross-check: $188.91.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $265.83
Analyst Range $236.00 – $291.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $188.91 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $265.83 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly