Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated logo RGA - Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $243.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $268.00
LOW: $208.00
MEDIAN: $249.50
CONSENSUS: $243.67
UPSIDE: 13.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.4% below fair value
Current Price $214.04
Bear Case $163.93 23.4% downside ($163.93 - $214.04) / $214.04 = -23.4% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.85x TBV
Fair Value $303.00 41.6% upside ($303.00 - $214.04) / $214.04 = 41.6% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.57x TBV
Bull Case $386.45 80.5% upside ($386.45 - $214.04) / $214.04 = 80.5% ROTCE 10.1% → 2.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.04x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.67 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $303.00 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $187.49 (42% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $243.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly