Resideo Technologies, Inc. logo REZI - Resideo Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 40.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.1% above fair value
Current Price $35.51
Bear Case $21.67 39.0% downside ($21.67 - $35.51) / $35.51 = -39.0% $1.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $27.09 23.7% downside ($27.09 - $35.51) / $35.51 = -23.7% $1.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $32.52 8.4% downside ($32.52 - $35.51) / $35.51 = -8.4% $1.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.09 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples