Resideo Technologies, Inc. logo REZI - Resideo Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
UPSIDE: 39.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 14.6% above fair value
Current Price $28.76
Bear Case $20.07 30.2% downside ($20.07 - $28.76) / $28.76 = -30.2% $1.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $25.09 12.8% downside ($25.09 - $28.76) / $28.76 = -12.8% $1.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $30.11 4.7% upside ($30.11 - $28.76) / $28.76 = 4.7% $1.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.09 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples