Resideo Technologies, Inc. logo REZI - Resideo Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $42.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $42.33
UPSIDE: 115.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.1% below fair value
Current Price $19.63
Bear Case $17.09 12.9% downside ($17.09 - $19.63) / $19.63 = -12.9% $1.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $21.36 8.8% upside ($21.36 - $19.63) / $19.63 = 8.8% $1.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $25.64 30.6% upside ($25.64 - $19.63) / $19.63 = 30.6% $1.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.42, the base-case value is $21.36 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $42.33
Analyst Range $27.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 50%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $42.33 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples